FWD: 香港金融中心地位危矣

国务院决定，全力将上海打造成国际金融中心。消息传来，笔者认为香港金融业至少减寿五年。

香港负责财经事物的高官表示，经过内部评估，港府不担心来自上海的竞争，对香港维持金融业的繁荣持乐观态度。要么港府为维持公众信心而故作镇静，要么港府作内部评估的人士脱离现 实、误判形势。笔者认为此项决定对香港经济有极其深远的影响，港府采取驼鸟态度，于事无补，只会进一步错失机会。逆水行舟，不进则退。

其实，近年的香港经济是“一好掩百丑”。当年的四大支柱产业，如今只剩下一个半。旅游业在大陆游客的刺激下形势不错，不过除去大陆游客，其它国家游客数量并不理想，当年的大主顾日本旅客的到港人数更是暴跌。真正还称得上支柱产业的，仅剩下金融业。不过所谓金融业，香港只有股市，近年撑起股市的是中资股，令资本市场赚钱的是中资ＩＰＯ。《经济学人》杂志在去年， 曾将香港评为仅次于纽约、伦敦的第三个全球金融中心。这对于过去最大野心也不过是区域金融中心的香港，真是莫大的荣耀。中国的崛起，为香港提供了历史性机 遇，机会来自Ａ股连年的熊市和不可拖延的银行改革。朱镕基一声令下，香港股市成了中国银行改革的实验场，也打造出香港金融业空前的繁荣。接下来的房地产热、基建热、QDII热，将港股推上一个又一个新高潮。

香港拥有世界一流的资本市场软环境，从法制精神到基础设施、从投资银行到监管管治，一切都来得很自然，并无刻意的追求。中国的大环境和Ａ股的不景，是将香港资本市场推上国际金融中心的两个必不可缺的因素。不过最重要的，还是香港的股市准备好了，抓住了机遇。股市之外，香港金融业并没有取得甚么新的突破。发展债券市场，一直是只闻楼梯声不见人下来，除了在中国大力推动下发行了几次人民币债券外，近年几乎乏善可 陈。甚至连发债建立一条政府债券收益曲线，作为债市的基准都一拖再拖。商品市场、黄金市场、能源交易，香港坐在世界第一大商品消费国门口，号称中国的对外 窗口，但在市场开拓上一事无成。私人银行业务近年有明显的扩充，但是发展却落后于竞争的新加坡，衍生产品accumulator更使香港的私人银行业务遭 受重创，相信业务又被打回原形！

成事不足，败事却有余。上市委员会在上市公司延长股票禁售期上的表现，凸显出管治上的缺陷。港交所明知收市后Ｕ盘交易存在明显的漏洞，却未亡羊补牢，直至汇 控股价在收市后对盘被操纵，导致一场波及全球的市场震荡。雷曼迷你债券的销售手法上，存在着监管的盲点，监管漏洞全世界都有，但是监管的当事人不思反省反 而抛出“先知先觉”论，就令人费解了。一国两制下，北京难以直接插手香港金融事务和监管，在言语上对香港仍十分客气，但是香港的不思进取、安于现状，相信 中央是看在眼里的，对于潜在的金融风险，相信中央是急在心上的。

当然，将上海建成国际金融中心，更有中国经济自身的全盘考虑。中国的国力日强，对世界的影响愈来愈大。建立起与国家实力相适应，与商业需求相配合的国际金融平台，既是自然的也是必 要的。作为世界第一大商品进口国，中国需要在商品市场有更大的话语权。美元信用扫地，贬值风险大增，作为世界第一大外汇储备国，中国有必要加速人民币国际化过程。

有人认为，中国经济在成长，完全有可能容得下两个金融中心。其实随着信息技术的飞跃发展和全球化的推进，一批交易所已经在被边缘化了，有生命力的股市在减少 而不是增多。全世界除了美国的NASDAQ外，亦没有其它成功的第二股市。NASDAQ成为科技企业的上市集散地，特点十分鲜明，而沪、港股市的内容大体 同质，区别并不明显，唯一的隔离是人民币政策。过去中国缺钱，需要进口资金，又不希望开放资本项目。香港的存在为内地提供了一个在不对热钱开放的情况下向海外集资的平台。时过境迁，中国现在成了世界最大 的储蓄国，海外不再是集资的唯一渠道。今天国内既有大量企业有集资的需要，又有大量资金寻求投资的机会，国际金融机构和人才纷纷进驻上海，香港的垄断性优 势在减弱，甚至消失。

笔者看来，上海与香港各有 一优势一劣势。上海的劣势在于市场的软环境。法制、监管、人才、效率上的提高，远比建金融大厦更困难，也不是几项政策优惠便能解决问题的。在软环境上，香 港具有优势，不过上海在迎头赶上。上海政府在做事，拼命地做事，千方百计地做事，每天都在做事。香港的优势在软环境上，而劣势则是政府的无所作为。整个体制陷于官僚化的、无效率的程序陷阱，没有创新思维，没有改革勇气，缺乏危机感，缺乏前瞻性策略，更 缺乏行动效率。想想朱镕基当年“议而不决，决而不行”的批评，看看港府的改进，不知特首作何感想，不知香港纳税人作何感想。

每 次笔者谈起香港必须未雨绸缪，开发新的金融产品，占领新的市场制高点，都有港府官员理直气壮地反问，香港又能做甚么？为甚么新加坡可以在两年内抢走瑞士私 人银行上百亿美元的业务，香港却做不到？中国主权基金、大型企业资金在海外面临投资困难，为甚么香港不能主动帮忙，进而成为中国资金海外投资的大本营？港 府官员除了在人民币离岸中心上守株待兔外，似乎根本就没有真正动过脑筯。香港公务员是一个运作极好的机器，但是没有大脑，缺乏独立的、具有前瞻性的战略思考。过去没有大脑不要紧，英国人做主将策略性的工作做了。回归之后，英国人走了，中央政府又没有插 手港府运作，香港的政策制订和政策效率就变得手忙脚乱。有相当一段时间，人们把问题归在董建华的管治身上。之后随着内地在自由行的开放和IPO上的输血， 危机被暂时掩盖住了。但是整个体制一直在繁忙地做无用功，官僚主义的拖延和立法会的掣肘，使得港府没有做出任何真正具有前瞻性、策略性的工作，遇到困难第 一时间上北京寻求政策性支持。当北京宣布将上海建成国际金融中心时，香港政坛似乎更关注某些议员讲粗口，负责财经的高官出来见记者也只是讲了些无关痛痒的话。开始笔者还以为他们碍于政治 考虑不便多评论中央政策和上海事物，后来发现港府内部评估好象真的没把此事当成一个危机来看待。公务员的薪酬中，退休后的长俸份量最重，所以人们多打定“ 做少错少”的思想，没人愿意思考、愿意承担，于是推诿成风，得过且过，讨论和评估成了小圈子里的过场戏，战略性决策和执行则能拖就拖。少了金融业，不知香 港的高租金、高楼价靠什么支持？到时候，公务员的高薪靠什么支持？

在 人民币成为国际货币、中国资本项目开放前，香港股市还有几年好光景。假如香港能融入珠三角的经济转型，并成为其金融窗口，与上海还能在竞争中共同进步。但 是如果香港不思进取，坐吃山空，不仅中资公司会在上海两地上市，汇丰、长实也可能到上海挂牌，届时香港金融业就面临着被边缘化的命运。笔者看来，香港今天是中国的纽约，以后则是中国的佛罗里达。

Tipping Point

My gut feeling is that we're now very close to the tipping point - watch out.

貨幣互換協議

中國正在利用其貿易的力量，加速和各國簽署貨幣互換協議，值得留意。我暫時忙於工作，未能抽空作分析，但驟眼看來協議應有以下作用：

• 作為貿易去美元化的第一步，減低其受美元貶值的影響
• 以扣扣相連的方式鞏固人民幣地位
• 在人民幣完全封閉和自由兌換之間走出另一條路
• 團結新興市場，作為和發達國家討價還價的本錢

隨著這些雙邊協議的擴張，人民幣實際上已經逐步進行有限度的自由兌換，只是對手並非和主要貨幣而已。先從側面削弱主要貨幣在世界貿易的影響，再提出改變國際金融秩序，這個做法是聰明的。事實上，中國還沒有實力和發達國家直接抗衡，還是韜光養晦的好。

---

DJ 中國和阿根廷簽署了人民幣700億元雙邊貨幣互換協議－新華社
【阿斯達克財經網 - ‎2009 年 3 月 31 日】

[新聞]中國與印尼達貨幣互換協議
【香港新浪網 - ‎2009年3月23日‎】
(...一千億元人民幣/一百七十五萬億印尼盧比..)

中國大陸與日本簽署雙邊貨幣互換協議
【大紀元3月28日訊】

中國貨幣互換擴至東歐
【香港商报 - ‎2009年3月11日‎】
(...200億元人民幣（8萬億白俄羅斯盧布）的雙邊貨幣互換協議...)

中國人民銀行與馬來西亞國民銀行簽貨幣互換協議
【2009年2月8日】
(...該協議互換規模為８００億元人民幣／４００億林吉特。協議實施有效期３年...)

香港金管局和中國央行簽署貨幣互換協議
【2009年1月20日】
(...已簽訂規模不超過人民幣2000億元（292億美元）的貨幣互換協議﹐為期三年...)

中國人民銀行和南韓銀行簽署雙邊貨幣互換協議
【新華網北京１２月１２日電 】
(...宣佈簽署一個規模為１８００億元人民幣／３８萬億韓元的雙邊貨幣互換協議...)

Geithner's Plan

Disclaimer: my views here may be simple, naive or even plain wrong. I'm not an economist. Feel free to let me know if you think any of these is inaccurate. Thanks.


US Treasury announced the plan to unfreeze toxic asset from the banks' balance sheets. There are millions of web sites talking about how the plan works so I am not going to reiterate that. However I do a few questions regarding the plan.

Who are eligible for participating in the plan? If I were the proprietary trading desk at Citibank, could I pay like 95 cents for a dollar of those risky assets on my own balance sheet? After all, I only need to put up some money upfront and the money I receive from the government is essentially free.

Okay, the regulator is not stupid so the scenario above is not going to happen. Let's say I were a hedge fund holding 100 million shares of Citibank. Can I set up an investment vehicle and bid up the risky asset, hoping that my bid would dramatically increase the balance sheet position of Citibank and boost the share price? My maximum loss is the money I paid upfront, with the potentially explosive upside on the share price.

I guess there are a number of ways to exploit the plan and get free money from the government. I am obviously not smart enough to figure out the others.

There is one statement in the plan that worries me: "Financing Is Provided Through FDIC Guarantee: If the seller accepts the purchase price....". Does that mean the banks can refuse to sell the assets if they deem the prices as "too low"? If so, then it may not be very different from the current situation, i.e. the banks fail to recognize the loss in those toxic assets.

FDIC is going to guarantee a large portion of financing. This almost means that FDIC is putting a big part of the liquidity created by the shadow banking system on its balance sheet. This also means that in addition to the Quantitative Easing plan announced earlier, much more money is going to be pumped into the system indirectly. Let's say I were Citibank (again) and I received real cash plus guarantees from selling the toxic assets, can I use those guarantees as bank reserves? If so then I would be able to free up the cash by selling the treasury debts used as bank reserve before. If this is true, then treasury debt prices will be depressed at least in the short run.

I think Geithner's plan will be successful in establishing a price of those toxic assets in the primary market since the motivation to create an elevated market price of these assets is big, but whether the price will hold in the secondary market is questionable. I see the secondary market as the venue to determine real market price - will you jump in to buy Citibank's shares only because you see the high price of the assets in the primary market? I guess not.

收市競價時段發生了甚麼事？

匯豐控股在三月九日的收市競價時段時在短短三秒鐘被「質低」四元後，各界紛紛猛烈評擊這個制度，說是提供機會給大戶做市云云。但究竟在當天發生了甚麼事，卻沒有詳盡的報導。在此我希望依自己的理解討論一下。

其實這個機制的設計十分簡單，要點如下：

1. 價格波幅不設限制
2. 接受「限價盤」和「市價盤」。例如你可以指定以四十元買匯豐，如果收市價是四十元或以下的話，你便有機會能夠買得到（註一）。你亦可以指定以市價買匯豐，那收市價則是你買入的價錢（註二）
   
3. 在 4:00:00 pm 至 4:07:59 pm，交易所會接受這兩種買賣盤；但在 4:08:00 pm - 4:09:59 pm，則只可以輸入市價盤
   
4. 收市價是能夠得出最大成交股數的價錢

以下舉一個簡單的例子：

買盤股數	買盤價錢	賣盤價錢	賣盤股數
1000	市價	市價	2000
2000	$10	$8	1000
1000	$9	$9	3000
5000	$8	$10	1000

用 $10 作收市價的話，則市場價有 3000 股成交（買盤 3000 股、賣盤 7000 股）；用 $9 的話有 4000 股可以成交（買盤 4000 股、賣盤 6000 股）；用 $8 的話則有 3000 股成交（買盤9000 股、賣盤 3000 股）。所以收市價是 $9。

如果收市前有 10000 股市價賣盤的話，變動則如下：

買盤股數	買盤價錢	賣盤價錢	賣盤股數
1000	市價	市價	12000
2000	$10	$8	1000
1000	$9	$9	3000
5000	$8	$10	1000

用 $10 作收市價會有 3000 股成交（買盤 3000 股、賣盤 17000 股）；用 $9 的話有 4000 股可以成交（買盤 4000 股、賣盤 16000 股）；用 $8 的話則有 9000 股成交（買盤9000 股、賣盤 13000 股）。收市價便會變成了 $8。

根據財華網的報導，事件經過大致如下：

• 在 4:09:57pm 之前，市場上有最大成交股數的價錢約 $37.4
• 這個時候有經紀輸入 471 萬的市價沽盤
• 因為出現類似上述例子的情況，收市價變成了 $33

香港市場的報價深度有限制，基本上是不太可能知道匯豐在每個價格有多少買賣盤，用以算出下盤之後的價格變動。我相信這一次落盤的客戶在交易中遭到的損失不少（除非這是對沖盤）。

順帶一提，譚紹興在文中所講的「以遠低於市價」排隊沽出股票，其實是頗為普遍的現象。原因是因為作為一個經紀，所關心的只是能否完成客戶的買賣盤；以低於市價賣出、高於市價買入，其實只是為了能夠完成客戶的盤。最終的價格還是收市價，除非股數太大，否則不應對收市價有太大的影響，特別是藍籌股這些流通量高的股票，影響更微。

老實說，即使取消收市競價時段，市場上仍會有「mark 價」的情況發生，只不過是提前到四時前進行罷了。畢竟這些大戶是用真金白銀在市場上買賣，用任何方法也是很難阻止的。這次港交所因為群眾壓力而臨時取消經過長時間諮詢的制度，實在損害了其公信力。再加上之前取消延長董事股份買賣期的限制，香港這個金融中心的信譽倒退不少，令人嘆息。

談經濟

回看舊文，在上年和前年我曾經大聲疾呼美國經濟會出大事，當時全球股市還在節節上升，到後來差不多連自己也覺得自己瘋了。一段「港股直通車」的新聞令香港股市上升了一萬點，對世界各地傳來的壞消息視若無睹。特區政府在經濟環境最好的時候沒有居安思危，博命派糖來換取民望，到今年居然以「反經濟週期」作為財政預算案的口號繼續派錢催谷經濟。金管局作為監管者，在雷曼事件中竟可以靠邊站，以銀行前線職員作擋箭牌。我在想，香港政府真是瘋了。

今次的金融風暴最可怕之處是完全看不到有任何出路。美國經濟持續下滑，正在為過去的透支消費付出代價；英國的地產市道岌岌可危，過去數年增長迅速的金融業嚴重萎縮，再找不到新的產業去支持增長；其他的西歐國家面對著工業生產下跌、國外需求萎縮、旅客減少等問題；東歐的新興市場和九七年的東南亞國家相似，貨幣貶值而短期外債過多，有倒債的風險。俄羅斯和中東因油價下降而收入減少，之前大興土木的杜拜外債竟然佔國民生產總值的百份之一百五十，需要同是阿拉伯聯合酋長國的阿布札比 (Abu Dhabi) 出手相救。澳洲地產市場也在下跌的軌道，央行正在減息以支撐經濟。印度引以為傲的資訊科技業，在國外需求下降的情況下亦有倒退的危險。日本迷失了這麼多年，最近又再陷入負增長。全世界的主要經濟體系中，就好像只有中國還在談增長。

在這樣的背景下，世界未來的情況會怎樣？我說知道的話是騙你的，想法倒是有一點。先組織一下，下次再談。

What Up At UBS

http://www.whatupatubs.blogspot.com/

Cannot say if it's true or not; but certainly an interesting read.

2009 經濟 / 股市展望

剛踏入 2009，又是時候「估」一下這年的世界經濟和股市怎樣走了（舊文在此）。

最近讀過不少有關的文章，似乎各界對今年的經濟和股市表現頗有共識，大致如下：

• 美國救市方案應該能夠阻止世界性的蕭條 (Depression)，但恐怕阻止不了衰退 (Recession)
• 新興市場在缺乏美國這個最龐大的消費者後，出口和經濟增長難免受到打擊，但情況應該沒有九七年金融風暴般嚴重
• 股市表現未必和經濟掛鈎。最近數次的經濟衰退中，股市在熊市中皆能有十分顯著的反彈。在各國政府大力「泵」水下，股市有上升的條件
• 美國國債市場出現泡沫，市場對安全資產的訂價過高。在情況明朗後，資金該能從債市流向其他市場
• 美元地位仍然穩固，原因不是美國經濟良好，而是其他地方如歐洲的情況更差

請謹記，在投資市場中，「共識」二字是十分危險的。

個人想法是：

• 最差的情況可能過去，但經濟復原的速度不會太快，零九年仍然是艱難的一年。希望經濟能有「V」型反彈大概是一廂情願的想法
• 今年股市會是大型上落市，即是俗語所謂「有波幅、無升幅」。在好與壞的消息此起彼落下，熱錢作 Directional Bet  (方向性投資?) 的機會不大。況且很多基金在零八年焦頭爛額，倖存者理應小心為上
• 我對中國股市是樂觀的。中國政府和美國政府不同，在這個時刻絕對有能力去維持經濟增長。而且今年是政治敏感年（建國六十週年、五四運動九十週年、八九民運二十週年），大陸絕對有需要減少群眾的不滿
• 香港有驚無險。作為一個出口型經濟和在庸官當道下，表現難有太大的驚喜。內地對香港的支持有如為垂危病人輸血，奄奄一息卻又死不了，迴光反照卻又欠缺條件

不論經濟環境怎樣，日子還是要過的。既然死不了，就勇敢的活下去罷。

我最希望的是世界和平。這次經濟危機希望能夠令各國暫時放下屠刀，避免生靈塗炭！

又係香港經濟

近日聽到最多的新聞就是裁員。金融業的災情尤其嚴重，所有大中小型銀行、基金、投資公司無一倖免。大家可以到 DealBreaker 看看標題便知：

17/11/08: UBS - 30% of the Investment Bank (Rumour)

17/11/08: Citi - 50000 jobs gone

12/11/08: Morgan Stanley - 10% of Institutional Securities, 9% of Asset Management

12/11/08: Chilton Investments - 20% jobs gone

10/11/08: Deutsche Post AG - 9500 jobs gone + shut down DHL's US operations

再加上今天星展銀行裁員 900 人、匯豐裁員 450 人等等，實在慘不忍睹。自己作為這個行業的一份子，當然不太好受。不過既然之前「玩大左」，現在唯有承受苦果，這也是無可奈何的。

對於經濟而言，本人並沒有甚麼真知灼見。想說的只是以下數點：

• 香港仍然是內耗太多。民主派所提出的只是派錢方案（退休保障、最低工資），和協助雷曼迷債「受害者」要求銀行賠償等。我看不到有任何實質的建議。他們討厭共產黨，但他們比中國的共產黨更共產。
• 樓價向下的機會仍然很大。裁員潮才剛剛開始，似乎還有漫漫長路要走。
• 股市和經濟是「人帶狗」，股市有時候會比經濟先行，有時則會落後。個人意見是中國因素會令香港股市於今年年尾前有機會反彈，但整體仍然向下。

基本上香港的政策可以分三方面：向內、向外和向上。

向內

• 近日所提及的十大基建，對促進就業是有幫助的。可是我覺得整體的方向不太清楚；究竟香港日後的定位如何？還利用這個機會發展金融中心嗎？如果是的話，請問香港有甚麼具體措施利用這次機會加強香港的金融中心地位？
• 高地價政策明顯削弱香港的競爭力，政府會否改變這項政策？
• 最壞時間仍然未過去；香港失業率失至百份之八以上機會不少。本港的四大支柱，旅遊、貿易、物流、金融服務，全部搖搖欲墜；未來的方向該當如何？

向上

• 中國近日提出大規模的基礎建設，香港政府會怎樣去幫助港企爭取合約？
• 香港物流中心的地位日益下降，中國和台灣積極研究三通；政府有何對策去面對這一挑戰？
• 本港和珠三角地區整合仍然不足。泛珠三角總人口有四點五億，如何去開拓這個市場？港珠澳大橋竟然談了二十五年才有結果，究竟有沒有官員要負責？
• 現在有任何計劃去參與中國第十二個五年計劃 (2011 - 2015) 嗎？

向外

• 相對來說，東南亞的經濟受影響較微。有機會從亞洲地區開拓商機嗎？
• 出入口對中小企來說相當重要。政府能夠提出甚麼扶助措施？這些措施到位嗎？
• 無可否認，這方面香港政府能夠做的實在有限。只能夠集思廣益，希望能夠想到一些好的方法。口水會嘛，做少一點也沒有所謂。

中國股市

此文章純屬講大話，絕不構成任何投資建議！

中國方面在今晚有報導指出：

• 二零一零年底前計劃投資四萬億
  
• 實行積極的財政政策
  
• 適度寬鬆的貨幣政策
• 取消對商業銀行的信貸規模限制，合理擴大信貸規模
  
• 加快農村基礎設施建設
  
• 加快鐵路、公路和機場等重大基礎設施建設
  
• 全國所有地區、所有行業全面實施增值稅轉型改革

會議要求，擴大投資出手要快，出拳要重，措施要准，工作要實。

十分明顯，中國政府的經濟政策已經完全放寬。中國其實不愁沒有錢，只是因為外圍因素和政府政策而使股市長期不振。之前推出了農地改革，是長遠的考慮；而今次的措施則為支持短期經濟增長。我的解讀是：

• 中國政府認識到「保八」的重要性和嚴重性，而急需推出措施應付
• 措施是多方面的；財政、貨幣政策、長期投資、短期舒緩企業所受的衝擊，進一步顯示了中國金融政策的成熟程度
• 措施為期兩年，某程度上亦是金融官員對世界經濟的分析結果。評論普遍認為世界經濟需於二零一零至一一年才有機會復蘇。
• 上次的「股市直通車」只是傳言；今次的措施是國務院會議結果，不可同日而語。對股市是重大的利好消息，這是不言而喻的。
• 香港經濟未必能夠直接得益，但股市短期反彈的機會很大。

預期得益的行業

• 金融
• 建築
• 運輸
• 房地產

原材料價格是全球性的；全世界的經濟衰退壓抑了對原材料的需求。中國這單一火車頭未必可以把整個市場帶動。短期可能會有刺激，但長遠仍不大樂觀。

FWD: Hedge Fund Manager Andrew Lahde Hates Hedge Fund Industry, Quitting Immediately

(From Financial Armageddon)

October 17, 2008

Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don’t worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer’s company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life – where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management – with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won’t see it included in BP’s, “Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions,” television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM’s similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant – marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let’s stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,
Andrew Lahde

Two articles about the financial crisis

George Magnus: Is there time to avert a Minsky meltdown?

George Soros: How to capitalise the banks and save finance

金融海嘯

十月九日是小弟的生日。在 2002 年的這一天美股見底，之後的五年股市節節上升；在 2007 年的這一天卻見頂，反覆回落至今，唔......

我們這一代人可說是見證了大時代：八九民運、中國改革開放、蘇聯解體、互聯網興起、科網爆破、沙士疫症以至現時蓆捲全球的金融海嘯，將來和子孫談話不怕找不到話題了。

我對這次危機有一點看法。為免長篇大論，只把它們點列出來：

1. 中國長久以來實行「韜光養晦」的策略，直到現在已經算是世界的強國之一。危機在前，中國可以籍此機會增強在國際間的影響力，和強國討價還價。在中國，有甚麼是凌駕於經濟發展呢？是政治。台灣獨立、印度擴張、打擊西藏分離份子等問題，在這個時候全部都可以和美國、歐洲做談判。世界上有經濟實力化解金融危機的國家可能只有中國和俄羅斯，而後者在油價崩潰後的經濟亦未許樂觀。中國股市雖然低迷，但相對國民生產總值所佔的比重並不高，而且美國衰退對中國的影響其實亦沒有外界所推測的大。中國和日本是持有美國政府債券最多的兩個國家，但日本今年的政治不穩且有衰退之虞；要發揮在國際上的影響力的話，這是最佳的時機。

2. 金融海嘯不是世界末日。這只是一個汰弱留強的遊戲，而這亦是資本主義的本質。可以預期，各國以洪水浸銀行以拯救經濟的時日不遠。美國發動印鈔機，雖然理論上會引致通脹加劇，但以現時的環境來說，通縮的威脅恐怕還比較嚴重。何況今年是大選年，即使將來會有甚麼更大的問題也好，可以解決燃眉之急的話，美國財金官員一定會做。解決了這個危機之後，又會有更大的泡沫產生。

3. 在這件事中，投資銀行成為眾矢之的。無可否認它們在這件事中要負上很大的責任。但即使投資銀行不存在，我深信這些精英還是會用其他方法去滿足其貪念，結果還是會造成不一樣的危機。以前投資銀行最喜歡僱用 PSD (Poor, Smart, Desire to be Rich)，利用他們的智慧和貪念去賺錢；沒有了投資銀行不代表人類的貪念會消失。可能下次所引發的是....生化危機？

題外話：下年就是八九民運的二十週年。我本來覺得如果今年沒有毒奶事件的話，平反六四是有可能的。在成功舉辦奧運和航天員出艙後，值民間喜氣洋洋的時候開始檢討六四事件，為下一年作預備並不是沒有可能。習近平最近以「執政黨」而非「革命黨」來形容中國共產黨，這亦是一個微妙的變化，值得留意。

時事短評數則

毒奶粉事件和舞王夜店發生火警的事件，從側面上反映了中國大陸的「軟件」如人的素質、教育水平、生意手法、管治效率等還是和世界水平有很大的差距。當中國還在沉醉於奧運的成功，「中國人民已經站起來」的時候，這些事件實在是一個當頭捧喝 －－ 要提高國民的水平不是二十年就可以完成的；這是一代、兩代人的事。從這方面去想，香港在中國以至在國際間的地位，暫時還算是穩固的。

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整個金融風暴的始作俑者，我認為是那三間評級機構。在次按風暴之前，他們還不是收取其他金融機構的金錢，用金融工程的方法把風險都分散、隱藏起來？這樣的黑心錢，恐怕相比毒奶粉還不算是好很多。我不明白，他們在投資者眼中還有甚麼公信力？還不如關門大吉的好。

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買了雷曼兄弟債券的「苦主」，感覺上有點輸打贏要；作為投資者，「先求知、再投資」乃是第一要義；收取比定期更高的利息，卻不去理解其中的風險，出事後卻又以銀行誤導為理由索取賠償。政府保護小投資者是重要的，但如果他們動用政府錢去賠償的話，上街的肯定是我。

又是懶惰之過

又有接近三個星期沒有更新這個博客了。期間到了台灣小休，之後又連續一星期要上午六時半上班，沒有甚麼時間停下來想世界上發生的事。理由多多，但歸根究底，一切都是本人懶惰之過。

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最近發生的頭等大事要數源於美國的金融風暴了。屹立於華爾街一百五十八年的雷曼兄弟在一夜之間倒閉，雖然有跡可尋，但總是令人婉惜。美林賣盤、美國國際集團 (AIG) 週轉不靈、房利美／房貸美資不抵債、數間投資銀行岌岌可危 ...... 環境與一年前的今日相差得實在太遠。資本主義使人的貪念發揮得淋漓盡致；我從來都相信人有走向極端、自我毁滅的傾向，今次的事件就是一個好例子。最壞的時候已經過去了嗎？恐怕還沒有。有機會爆發的危機尚有：

• 信用卡與私人貸款 - 今次事件影響的大部份是投資銀行及與房地產借貸有關的公司。在美國這個儲蓄率極低的國家，房價下跌令個人難以透過再抵押房產還款，嚴重影響個人的還款能力。如果連商業銀行也受到波及的話，後果恐怕比現在還嚴重十偣。

• 消費收縮與通貨膨漲 - 大家對經濟前境和就業前境悲觀的話，還會像以往一樣無節制的消費嗎？雖然主流的經濟學家認為通漲應於今年下半年見頂，但我想這次美國的金融危機一發不可收拾，投資人還會對美元充滿信心嗎？美元疲弱，商品價格上升而拉動通漲，看起來機會不小。

• 新興市場增長放慢 - 美國和歐洲相繼發生金融危機、其他如亞洲等的新興市場難免遭池魚之殃。這是一個推論，我手上沒有數據，具體的影響還不太清楚。但好像已經沒有人再談 decoupling （新興和發展成熟的市場相關性不大）了。
  

我不是經濟學家，論點有何謬誤之處煩請告之。

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美國的金融危機對中國來說也許是一個機遇。第一、已發展國家的經濟受到危機的影響甚大，亦削弱了西方國家整體的國力，要完全恢復需要數以年計的時間。中國正可以在這段時間蹈光養晦，爭取建設社會和發展經濟。第二、亞洲受到金融危機的影響相對來說較輕微，而發展的機會亦較大，相信可以吸引到歐美的人力和財力東移，這對區域長遠的發展大大有利。第三、這個區域作為世界經濟的火車頭，也可以平衡長期以來西方在政治上的影響力，世界和平反而會比較有保障。唯一擔心的是北方的俄羅斯，有趁亂崛起之勢，絕對是一個計時炸彈。

Dow Jones Index - 28/5/2008

Apologies for these boring charts - I'm thinking of writing something else but that's a big topic, it will take me some time to finish that :)

AS ALWAYS, the following comments do not constitute any investment advice. Treat it like any _BS_ you come across on the Internet, or at home, or in the office, whatever.














It turned out that the failure to break out the resistance line is fatal, as evidenced by the sharp drop last week. Now the DJI is hovering on the Fibonacci line support @ 50%, and slow STC line on the daily chart is showing strength. Daily and weekly charts show different opposite signals - expect sideway market these days if there is no big market driver - stay tuned.

















There are always a number of ways to draw trend lines - and the one above may be a bit controversial. My interpretation is that it failed to break out the 50% resistance line in a sustained manner, and now it finds some support at 38.2% lines with slow STC line showing a bit of strength. Conclusion is basically the same as DJI - expect sideway market for the coming days (well this is probably BS as S&P and DJI are highly correlated....)

The Next Big Thing

I am skeptical at everything; hence the name of this blog.

Hong Kong stock market rebounded in the last 4 weeks or so, and similar for the US. The "reasons" were better-than-expected earnings, less-worse-than-expected payrolls etc. Is the US economy in such a good shape to warrant a shallow correction (18% drop from Oct-07 high of 14197 to Jan-08 low of 11647)?

Consider the facts: subprime mortgages have blown up, inflation pressure is building up, people are losing jobs, house prices have gone down, oil price is as high as the moon, the economy is clearly contracting - the core question is, as always, is the worst over?

I'm afraid not. My guess is that rising credit card delinquency rate will be The Next Big Thing (tm).

Let's say you're a person living in US. You worked in a big financial institution and received good bonus. You refinanced your apartment to take advantage of the housing boom, spent like crazy in the last few years. Gasoline price was less than $2 per gallon, food was cheap and you could not find a trace of inflation. Your investments performed very well. You have got tax rebates from the Government. Foreign goods were affordable.

Those were good old times. Suddenly you're in 2008.

The financial institution that you worked in no longer exists. You survived the first and second rounds of redundancies but could not make the third. The price of your apartment is falling every month and you can no longer afford to pay for the mortgage. Gasoline price is now higher than $3.5 per gallon, food price is soaring and inflation is everywhere due to commodity boom and declining US dollar. Stock market has fallen in the last 6 months. You still have got some money from the Government - just enough to pay some bills perhaps.

What would you do? I guess one normal reaction is to wait and see - dip into your savings first (reminder: the saving rate in US is close to zero). If it's not sufficient, sell your investments. In the worst case, pay for the bills using your credit card, the easiest form of personal loan available, and hope that the next president will save you and your family.

Will the new US president be able to do so? I don't know. But it doesn't sound very likely isn't it.

Credit card companies are not stupid either - they will find some ways to protect themselves. Raising rate, ask someone to share the risk, or sell more credit-card ABS. Rating agencies tell us that we're still safe - anyone wants to trust them anymore?

隨想

這個博客的主人思想有點混亂。很多時在腦海中會有一些想法，想在這兒把它們記下來。大部份也沒有經過很好的整理和深入的分析，只是寥寥數筆而已。雖然可能會 too simple, sometimes naive，但寫下總好過把它們忘記掉罷。

經濟

在未來可見的日子，除非在技術上有重大突破，否則糧食和原材料通漲依然會是一個嚴重的問題。理由如下：

• 美元疲弱　－　美國人民借全世界的錢去揮霍的好日子可能已經過去了。房地產價格下跌，所產生的財富效應降低（閣下層樓無值咁多錢，覺得身家縮水自然洗少左），而且不能靠再按揭取得金錢以作消費。再加上次按問題導致金融機構虧損嚴重，聯儲局救市措施接二連三推出，繼續減息印銀紙以支撐經濟自然少不了。美元下降，以美元訂價的食品價格自然上升。
  
• 發展中國家（如中國）中產階級冒起，他們要求更好的生活質素，食品自然少不了。這裏所談的並不是說山珍海味，而是奶類、蛋類、肉類等的食品，需求正在大幅上升。
• 美國的能源政策也是罪魁禍手之一。為減少對國外石油的依賴，新的能源法案要求國內出售的汽油需要包含一定份量的生物原料 (biofuel)，而生物原料則是用糧食如玉米等來提煉。在美國對農業和生物原料發展的巨額補貼下，大量糧食就此變成汽油。
  
• 油價急升亦令肥料價格和運費上升，生產糧食的費用直接受影響。
  

我們畢竟是幸福的一群，糧食價格上升對大家的生活影響應該不大。可是在這個世界中，有三十億人每日只靠不足兩美金過活，糧食價格急升直接威脅他們的生命安危。如果大家有能力的話，不妨少去一次半次 fine-dining，把錢捐給有需要的人，如此則善莫大焉。

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我想寫的還有 Blackjack 、人生的意義、佛教和基督教、奧運 (2) 等，不過現在已經夜深，擇日再談罷。

US Economy, USDJPY / VIX (II)

Warning: I am not an expert and the following text is basically BULL SHIT. You have been warned.

One good way to determine whether it is a bull or bear market is to look at its reaction to good / bad news. In a Bull market, bad news are ignored and reaction on good news are exaggerated; in a Bear market, exactly the opposite is true. Have you seen the market reacting to good news these days?

Walmart

Walmart just released its results yesterday - numbers were good but outlook was bad.

"Scott said on a recorded conference call. Higher fuel prices, interest rates, utility costs and more financial pressure are hurting sales in its international market, including Mexico and Canada, he added."

If you could not even pay to buy necessities in the supermarket, would you buy a new home? Would you pay interest-only monthly mortgage payment? And - do you think you know more about the reality of the US economy than the Chief Executive of Walmart?

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=b6bc1a44-6edd-4b5b-bde2-51ad7b4e0866&k=48389

USDJPY

Looks like a decisive break of the channel in the weekly chart. IMHO, carry unwind is a bigger problem than US subprime for Asian markets











VIX

Volatility has reached 4-year high. More to come?








Hong Kong

(Daily chart)
A decisive break of the uptrend with increased volume; near term outlook is definitely negative. MACD / RSI / Slow STC are all telling the same message.







(Weekly chart)
This chart is incorrect. As of the time of this writing, HSI has already broken 21400 level. In the medium term, 21K should provide some support.







Again this is all bull shit - you have been warned.

Charts: 2007-08-07

Warning: I am not an expert and the following text is basically BULL SHIT. You have been warned.

As usual, charts for USDJPY, DJI and VIX

1. USDJPY

The price action of USDJPY is showing signs of recovery. Going back to the channel should provide some relief to many people - at least one thing less to worry in this crazy market.

It usually rebounds when RSI is around 30 - can we expect it to do so this time?



2. DJI

DJI is so volatile these days. Failure to break 13541 will bring us to 13K, or even worse.









3. VIX


Volatility has continued to go up - as an investor I would rather prefer to stay away in turbulent times. As mentioned in the previous blog entry, volatility is a sufficient reason for the stock market to collapse.




4. Hong Kong Small Caps

An interesting scene today in Hong Kong - small caps are all playing bungy jump. A million dollar question: Why do the active players in this space sell everything together?