Sunday, October 26, 2008

FW: Would the Last Honest Reporter Please Turn On the Lights?

美國大選的選情有點兒一面倒。奧巴馬在多個民調遙遙領先,但他真是好得沒有缺點嗎?且看這篇文章:"Would the Last Honest Reporter Please Turn On the Lights?"(按此閱讀中譯版本)。重點如下:

1. 美國次按風暴的主角,房利美 (Fannie Mae) 和房貸美 (Freddie Mae) 之所以能夠不斷的批出按揭予沒有還款能力的人,全是因為民主黨(奧巴馬的政黨)所做成。

2. 共和黨(麥凱恩的政黨)曾經嘗試立法規管這兩所機構,但被否決;

3. 直至現在,房利美的前主管仍然是奧巴馬的非正式顧問。而這位仁兄曾經在這數年間賺取了九千萬美元的收入。

4. 傳媒似乎偏袒奧巴馬;他們不斷追訪民主黨副總統候選人佩林的女兒未婚懷孕,但卻奧巴馬的負面消息不聞不問。

此外,有數據顯示奧巴馬在做參議員的短短數年間,從有關機構收取了接近十六萬五千美元的捐款(每年多於四萬美元),而麥凱恩做了這麼多年參議員只收取了二萬二千美元(平均每年約九百美元)。

這些事實令你改觀嗎?

不要只相信傳媒所報導的事件。現今的傳媒越來越不可靠,有需要的話,直接從網上找找正反兩邊的評論,可能會更接近事實的真相。

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

歌詞的聯想(十八禁)

其實香港十八歲以下既人士,分分鐘仲壞過十八歲以上既。不過點都加番個警句字樣啦。

廣東歌大家就聽得多,但我有時聽聽下歌,突然間會諗:「咁樣填都得?」係度舉少少例子,如果你唔同意,咁你就當我諗多左啦。

有一位稱作「梦」的著名填詞人,作品燴灸人口。但不文內容亦以佢未信佛時的作品最多,例如:

楊千嬅「放煙花」

偉大 偉大 偉大 偉大有沒有獎
向上 向上 向上 叫陌生者景仰

(又偉大又向上,你覺得係咩)

有沒有煙花 繼續放煙花 耗盡能量
大叫直到沙啞 別要靜下 大家感動了嗎
別要墮下 別要墮下

(放煙花 - 自己想像下啦。點解之後會感動呢?仲要_ _ 不倒...)

陳奕迅「大開眼戒」

情人如若很好奇 要有被我嚇怕的準備
試問誰可 潔白無比
如何承受這好奇 答案大概似剃刀鋒利
願赤裸相對時 能夠不傷你

(最初聽到,我以為....有病)

當你未放心 或者先不要走得這麼近
如果我露出斑點滿身 可馬上轉身

(病徵乎?)

容小姐既「痛愛」睇怕唔洗點講。

之後最有名的填詞人應該係黃生,又有例子:

容祖兒「Lucky Star」

你引致我床搖搖

(點解會床搖搖呢?)

綿羊十萬隻 又再數一次
仍然沒睡意 形成壞主意
叫他 臨床去將我醫

(「他」點樣醫你既「壞主意」?)

明明是夜極了 沒散會之意
麻煩慢慢唱 由頭做一次
這些 兒時我不會知 (所以今晚更加要知)

(由頭做一次,真係粗勞......點解一首兒歌兒時不會知?)

寫住咁多先,諗到再寫。

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

衷心忠告

一年前曾經在這兒不斷提及經濟前境暗淡。照現在看來,經濟最少需要三年才能夠恢復元氣,而這已經是一個很樂觀的估計。我在此希望能夠給大家一點建議;有用的話固然最好,否則請一笑致之。

我以前的老闆曾經講過:"Keep your head down and do the work". 這個經濟環境大概不是另謀高就的時候,也不是要求加薪加花紅的時候。升職大概還是有機會的,因為這不用花錢。如果可以守得住的話,不妨繼續默默耕耘。大家相信香港會有失業率 8%,甚至 10% 的日子嗎?我相信為期不遠。

共勉之。

Sunday, October 19, 2008

Bless You => Speed Date !?

睇埋個 email 就知咩叫九唔搭八

Saturday, October 18, 2008

FWD: Hedge Fund Manager Andrew Lahde Hates Hedge Fund Industry, Quitting Immediately

(From Financial Armageddon)

October 17, 2008

Today I write not to gloat. Given the pain that nearly everyone is experiencing, that would be entirely inappropriate. Nor am I writing to make further predictions, as most of my forecasts in previous letters have unfolded or are in the process of unfolding. Instead, I am writing to say goodbye.

Recently, on the front page of Section C of the Wall Street Journal, a hedge fund manager who was also closing up shop (a $300 million fund), was quoted as saying, “What I have learned about the hedge fund business is that I hate it.” I could not agree more with that statement. I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.

There are far too many people for me to sincerely thank for my success. However, I do not want to sound like a Hollywood actor accepting an award. The money was reward enough. Furthermore, the endless list those deserving thanks know who they are.

I will no longer manage money for other people or institutions. I have enough of my own wealth to manage. Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their Blackberries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. Steve Balmer, Steven Cohen, and Larry Ellison will all be forgotten. I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the Blackberry away and enjoy life.

So this is it. With all due respect, I am dropping out. Please do not expect any type of reply to emails or voicemails within normal time frames or at all. Andy Springer and his company will be handling the dissolution of the fund. And don’t worry about my employees, they were always employed by Mr. Springer’s company and only one (who has been well-rewarded) will lose his job.

I have no interest in any deals in which anyone would like me to participate. I truly do not have a strong opinion about any market right now, other than to say that things will continue to get worse for some time, probably years. I am content sitting on the sidelines and waiting. After all, sitting and waiting is how we made money from the subprime debacle. I now have time to repair my health, which was destroyed by the stress I layered onto myself over the past two years, as well as my entire life – where I had to compete for spaces in universities and graduate schools, jobs and assets under management – with those who had all the advantages (rich parents) that I did not. May meritocracy be part of a new form of government, which needs to be established.

On the issue of the U.S. Government, I would like to make a modest proposal. First, I point out the obvious flaws, whereby legislation was repeatedly brought forth to Congress over the past eight years, which would have reigned in the predatory lending practices of now mostly defunct institutions. These institutions regularly filled the coffers of both parties in return for voting down all of this legislation designed to protect the common citizen. This is an outrage, yet no one seems to know or care about it. Since Thomas Jefferson and Adam Smith passed, I would argue that there has been a dearth of worthy philosophers in this country, at least ones focused on improving government. Capitalism worked for two hundred years, but times change, and systems become corrupt. George Soros, a man of staggering wealth, has stated that he would like to be remembered as a philosopher. My suggestion is that this great man start and sponsor a forum for great minds to come together to create a new system of government that truly represents the common man’s interest, while at the same time creating rewards great enough to attract the best and brightest minds to serve in government roles without having to rely on corruption to further their interests or lifestyles. This forum could be similar to the one used to create the operating system, Linux, which competes with Microsoft’s near monopoly. I believe there is an answer, but for now the system is clearly broken.

Lastly, while I still have an audience, I would like to bring attention to an alternative food and energy source. You won’t see it included in BP’s, “Feel good. We are working on sustainable solutions,” television commercials, nor is it mentioned in ADM’s similar commercials. But hemp has been used for at least 5,000 years for cloth and food, as well as just about everything that is produced from petroleum products. Hemp is not marijuana and vice versa. Hemp is the male plant and it grows like a weed, hence the slang term. The original American flag was made of hemp fiber and our Constitution was printed on paper made of hemp. It was used as recently as World War II by the U.S. Government, and then promptly made illegal after the war was won. At a time when rhetoric is flying about becoming more self-sufficient in terms of energy, why is it illegal to grow this plant in this country? Ah, the female. The evil female plant – marijuana. It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers. This policy is ludicrous. It has surely contributed to our dependency on foreign energy sources. Our policies have other countries literally laughing at our stupidity, most notably Canada, as well as several European nations (both Eastern and Western). You would not know this by paying attention to U.S. media sources though, as they tend not to elaborate on who is laughing at the United States this week. Please people, let’s stop the rhetoric and start thinking about how we can truly become self-sufficient.

With that I say good-bye and good luck.

All the best,
Andrew Lahde

Sunday, October 12, 2008

三件關於電視的事

1. 近日股市波動,有人曾經問我:「為甚麼秋官主演的電視劇沒有上映,但股市走勢卻每況越下呢?」我答:「欣宜好像快有電視劇上映,其影響力可能比為父的更甚‧‧‧‧‧‧」

2. 看到「蔡瀾嘆名菜」這一個節目,想到的並不是羡慕他能夠和三位美女一起吃豪華美食(更好的是電視台付賬),而是不禁感嘆:「朱門酒肉臭,路有凍死骨」。

3. 今天回家後看到王賢誌和韓君婷主持的「選美風雲五十年」,十分欣賞王賢誌訪問的技巧和內容,為節目生色不少,值得一讚。

Saturday, October 11, 2008

金融海嘯

十月九日是小弟的生日。在 2002 年的這一天美股見底,之後的五年股市節節上升;在 2007 年的這一天卻見頂,反覆回落至今,唔......

我們這一代人可說是見證了大時代:八九民運、中國改革開放、蘇聯解體、互聯網興起、科網爆破、沙士疫症以至現時蓆捲全球的金融海嘯,將來和子孫談話不怕找不到話題了。

我對這次危機有一點看法。為免長篇大論,只把它們點列出來:

1. 中國長久以來實行「韜光養晦」的策略,直到現在已經算是世界的強國之一。危機在前,中國可以籍此機會增強在國際間的影響力,和強國討價還價。在中國,有甚麼是凌駕於經濟發展呢?是政治。台灣獨立、印度擴張、打擊西藏分離份子等問題,在這個時候全部都可以和美國、歐洲做談判。世界上有經濟實力化解金融危機的國家可能只有中國和俄羅斯,而後者在油價崩潰後的經濟亦未許樂觀。中國股市雖然低迷,但相對國民生產總值所佔的比重並不高,而且美國衰退對中國的影響其實亦沒有外界所推測的大。中國和日本是持有美國政府債券最多的兩個國家,但日本今年的政治不穩且有衰退之虞;要發揮在國際上的影響力的話,這是最佳的時機。

2. 金融海嘯不是世界末日。這只是一個汰弱留強的遊戲,而這亦是資本主義的本質。可以預期,各國以洪水浸銀行以拯救經濟的時日不遠。美國發動印鈔機,雖然理論上會引致通脹加劇,但以現時的環境來說,通縮的威脅恐怕還比較嚴重。何況今年是大選年,即使將來會有甚麼更大的問題也好,可以解決燃眉之急的話,美國財金官員一定會做。解決了這個危機之後,又會有更大的泡沫產生。

3. 在這件事中,投資銀行成為眾矢之的。無可否認它們在這件事中要負上很大的責任。但即使投資銀行不存在,我深信這些精英還是會用其他方法去滿足其貪念,結果還是會造成不一樣的危機。以前投資銀行最喜歡僱用 PSD (Poor, Smart, Desire to be Rich),利用他們的智慧和貪念去賺錢;沒有了投資銀行不代表人類的貪念會消失。可能下次所引發的是....生化危機?

題外話:下年就是八九民運的二十週年。我本來覺得如果今年沒有毒奶事件的話,平反六四是有可能的。在成功舉辦奧運和航天員出艙後,值民間喜氣洋洋的時候開始檢討六四事件,為下一年作預備並不是沒有可能。習近平最近以「執政黨」而非「革命黨」來形容中國共產黨,這亦是一個微妙的變化,值得留意。

Sunday, October 5, 2008

武俠梁祝

R 爆頭都諗唔到「武俠」同「梁祝」有咩關係。莫非係「醉拳甘迺迪」同「南拳北腿孫中山」既延續篇?

去左邊?

如果我係維他奶高層,係今次毒奶粉事件發生後,我必定打鑼打鼓洗多一千幾百萬去做宣傳,叫香港人轉飲豆奶!又平又有益,又無三聚氰胺。佢地去左邊?

仲有,毒奶事件發生左咁耐,世界衞生組織唔洗幫手架咩?陳馮富珍又去左邊?

九七年亞洲發生金融風暴,國際貨幣基金會廿幾萬個專家出黎教亞洲國家應該點點點;今次美國出事,呢班所謂專家又去晒邊?

個市跌到萬六七點,四五六叔又去晒邊?

全部失蹤晒。