反高潮

當香港人炒股票炒得咁開心既時候，又係時候出來提供一些相反的觀點了 (aka 潑冷水)

Summers: Recession threat worst since 9/11

索默斯 (Lawrence Summers)、魯賓 (Robert E. Rubin) 和格林斯班 (Alan Greenspan) 是克林頓任內最主要的財金官員，對當時的美國以至全球經濟穩定發展有很重要的貢獻。他的言論，應該會比財經演員有份量罷。

Magnus: This particular 'Minsky Moment' is by no means over

George Magnus is a senior economic advisor in UBS. He published at least 2 research reports about Minsky moment - it's worth a read if you could get a copy.

放工回家看有線新聞，其中有報道話做直通車業務的銀行未有批文，內地散戶暫時無法開設跨境股票戶口。聽起來有點奇怪，國家政策執行有這麼兒戲嗎？

傳統股災月份是十月，離現在只有約一個月時間。貪與懼，在過去的兩週已表露無遺；在未來的一個月，難道真的會風平浪靜？

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這篇夜話神童寫得不錯，值得一讀。其中所引用的報章報導亦發人深省。最近每份報章也在講神童，這兩篇文也算是反高潮罷。

又來李寶椿

今天是第一個工作天到新辦公室上班。當我在樓下舉頭向上望的時候，猛然發現它寫的是：

李寶椿大廈

換而言之，之前所寫的 "李寶樁" 是錯的 @@", 而該物業管理公司也搞錯了大廈名稱，所以正音係李寶 "春"。

特此向所有被我誤導的人道歉（最少有 Fiona @@)

黃秋生

睇番我以前係某 newsgroup 出既舊 post, 原來轉述了一段黃秋生的說話。講得幾有道理，同大家分享下：

黃秋生：我經常說，年輕人幹甚麼都好，最緊要夠膽。我最看不過眼不夠膽的年輕人，像個阿伯一樣，但行為又不夠成熟、又不夠膽，愛做些事看起來好有型、但又不是那回事......好像現在年輕人的outlook，你梳一個Punk的髮型但你的人不夠Punk；你留長髮但你的人不Rock；穿鼻環、耳環但不知道那些意思；你紋身但你不是那類人，你不是那類人你就別做那些事，乾脆不要做，因為這很核突。所有事情變成一種Fashion、所有東西都是虛偽的、假的。穿得像個板仔但你又不是黑鬼、不懂黑人文化，甚麼都不懂，走路的姿勢搖搖晃晃像個短命種......幹嗎要這樣？倒不如梳好你的頭，斯斯文文做人還好？你根本就不是那回事。

小雨

無意中聽到一個在四川的網絡歌手唱 <<夜盲症>>，很動聽。
很久沒有聽過這樣的歌聲了。她唱的<<夜曲>> 也不錯，<<一眼萬年>> 也很好
值得推介給大家：

夜曲：http://www.im.tv/vlog/Personal/267906/201006
一眼萬年：http://www.im.tv/vlog/Personal/267906/218546

這樣的歌聲，在香港恐怕找不到... 只有王宛之算是比較接近

USDJPY (III)

I must apologize to all the readers of this blog (if there's any) for posting too many charts - but this is a truly historical moment.... at least in this decade.

USDJPY

Day high: 118.55
Day low: 111.99

7 big figures!!

US Economy, USDJPY / VIX (II)

Warning: I am not an expert and the following text is basically BULL SHIT. You have been warned.

One good way to determine whether it is a bull or bear market is to look at its reaction to good / bad news. In a Bull market, bad news are ignored and reaction on good news are exaggerated; in a Bear market, exactly the opposite is true. Have you seen the market reacting to good news these days?

Walmart

Walmart just released its results yesterday - numbers were good but outlook was bad.

"Scott said on a recorded conference call. Higher fuel prices, interest rates, utility costs and more financial pressure are hurting sales in its international market, including Mexico and Canada, he added."

If you could not even pay to buy necessities in the supermarket, would you buy a new home? Would you pay interest-only monthly mortgage payment? And - do you think you know more about the reality of the US economy than the Chief Executive of Walmart?

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=b6bc1a44-6edd-4b5b-bde2-51ad7b4e0866&k=48389

USDJPY

Looks like a decisive break of the channel in the weekly chart. IMHO, carry unwind is a bigger problem than US subprime for Asian markets











VIX

Volatility has reached 4-year high. More to come?








Hong Kong

(Daily chart)
A decisive break of the uptrend with increased volume; near term outlook is definitely negative. MACD / RSI / Slow STC are all telling the same message.







(Weekly chart)
This chart is incorrect. As of the time of this writing, HSI has already broken 21400 level. In the medium term, 21K should provide some support.







Again this is all bull shit - you have been warned.

FWD: 給颱風先生的信

李寶樁

Office 將會搬到 LPCC (Li Po Chun Chamber), 好多人都將個大廈名讀為李寶"春"。今天終於查了字典, 呢個字係讀 "莊" / "裝" 字, 同 "木樁" 係同一個字 (http://humanum.arts.cuhk.edu.hk/Lexis/lexi-can/search.php?q=%BC%CE)。個名既正寫係 "李寶樁", 唔係 "李寶椿" (http://www.joneslanglasalle.com.hk/zh-HK/services/casestudies/李寶樁大廈.htm)

以後大家唔好再讀李寶"春" 啦！

會考

係報紙度睇到有個只得 14 歲既女學生攞到 8A + 5* 既成績, 真係犀利... 我 14 歲既時候係度做緊咩呢? 應該係發下白日夢, 訓下覺, 搞下機呱. 不過讀書差不多係一生人最開心既時間, 佢咁快讀完, 第日可能會有遺憾.

另一方面, 中英文變 5*.... 同香港回歸十週年有無關係架? 中國旗又係五星... 咁所有成績好既學生全部自動愛國, 國家教育又進一步 @@" 諗呢條橋既人真係利害利害.

Charts: 2007-08-07

Warning: I am not an expert and the following text is basically BULL SHIT. You have been warned.

As usual, charts for USDJPY, DJI and VIX

1. USDJPY

The price action of USDJPY is showing signs of recovery. Going back to the channel should provide some relief to many people - at least one thing less to worry in this crazy market.

It usually rebounds when RSI is around 30 - can we expect it to do so this time?



2. DJI

DJI is so volatile these days. Failure to break 13541 will bring us to 13K, or even worse.









3. VIX


Volatility has continued to go up - as an investor I would rather prefer to stay away in turbulent times. As mentioned in the previous blog entry, volatility is a sufficient reason for the stock market to collapse.




4. Hong Kong Small Caps

An interesting scene today in Hong Kong - small caps are all playing bungy jump. A million dollar question: Why do the active players in this space sell everything together?

吳清源

剛剛看完田莊莊的電影 "吳清源 "－完全感覺得到主角在那一個時代的無奈。在中日交戰的時候，身為中國人卻在日本大勝所有對手，而且要面對疾病跟車禍...... 可能正是生在錯誤的世代，才顯出他的偉大。

大家有興趣的話不妨買來一看。如果想知道故事背景的話，可以參考以下的文章:

http://www.chisa.edu.cn/chisa/article/20050818/20050818008121_1.xml

Hypocrisies are All Around

I am reading the book "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" written by John Perkins. This is an excellent book about a profession whose job is to cheat the poor countries and expand the influence of an empire (i.e. Uncle Sam). I was particularly impressed by the speech of an Indonesian woman:

---

"What a horrible thought!" I [the author] could barely contain myself. "What can we do to change this?"

The English major looked me directly in the eyes. "Stop being so greedy," she said, "and so selfish. Realize that there is more to the world than your big houses and fancy stores. People are starving and you worry about oil for your cars. Babies are dying of thirst and you search the fashion magazines for the latest styles. Nations like ours are drowning in poverty, but your people don't even hear our cries for help. You shut your ears to the voices of those who try to tell you these things. You label them radicals or Communists. You must open your hearts to the poor and downtrodden, instead of driving them further into poverty and servitude. There's not much time left. If you don't change, you're doomed".

---

The world has obviously not learned a lesson. The current issue of Economist (August 4th, 2007) reported that America would be supplying Arabian countries with $63 billion worth of arms, Israel included. What's more, U.S. is having a deal with India on nuclear co-operation - a country which has never signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Isn't it the best example of having a double standard (or triple / quadruple, who cares)?

A Market-Moving Conference Call

http://biz.yahoo.com/cc/4/84324.html

Conference call held by Bear Stearns - arguably the most important reason for Friday's sell-off in the last two hours on last Friday.

USDJPY / VIX

Warning: I am not an expert and the following text is basically BULL SHIT. You have been warned.

I look at these two charts all the time before I make my investment decisions.

1. USDJPY

I am a big fan of channel. As you can see in the following chart - USDJPY is testing the support of the channel bottom.













(2) VIX - CBOE Volatility Index

The age of low volatility is over?










My reasoning is as follows:

1. The investment boom in these years (post 2001) is due to the availability of cheap money and low volatility
2. Money is cheap because the rate is very low by historical standard. This is further fueled by carry trades (against major and EM currencies) and relaxation of credits
   
3. Low volatility environment encourages investors to take on more risk, even for the risks that do not have a good risk-to-reward ratio.

Violation of one of these two conditions would cause serious result. Much has been said about carry trade unwinding, but I could not see a lot of discussions on volatility.

I believe that volatility itself is a sufficient condition to cause the stock market to collapse:

1. Prudent investors tend to step back when volatility increases - i.e. withdraw money from the market and put them into traditionally safe investments (whether they are still safe or not - that's another question)
2. They withdraw money by selling the equities directly and through redemption of funds. In order to prepare for redemptions, these funds (mutual / hedge funds) need to sell equities as well. This problem is amplified by the low cash ratio of funds in these years
3. Supply of money through credit is likely to fall. The harm caused by subprime mortgage is not the mortgage itself (it only accounts for a very small portion of the credit market), but the repricing of risks for existing investments and demand for a much higher risk premium for new loans.

Again this is all bull shit - you have been warned.

不敢寫 Blog

從小時候開始，我已經有想過每天寫日記，可惜直至現在還沒有實行過。原因／藉口是：

• 文筆並不流暢，中英文皆不能運用自如。
• 自己的思想充滿矛盾。有時寫了一句，在腦海內已經想到了十個反駁的論點，結果是得不到任何結論。
• 雖然表面看起來我是一個很理性的人，但我總覺得自己的思維邏輯有一點問題。很多時靠直覺取得結論，再究其原因。思想不嚴謹，寫出來自然沒有說服力。
• 我有理由相信自己患有 Attention-Deficit Syndrome (ADS - 還好不是 AIDS)，很難集中精神去做一件事。寫文章跟寫程式不同，寫一篇好的文章所需要的專注大很多。
• 總覺得自己見識不夠，寫文章只會失禮於人。
  

因為這些原因，自己有很多想法只會留在腦海中，過了不久便忘掉了。

回頭又想，既然現在網上這麼多博客，自己倒不如也寫一個。有一個地方去發表自己的偉論 (aka 爛文），浪費互聯網的空間／污染讀者們的思維，也是一件值得做的事。

最重要的是，以後回看這些文章，可以發現自己還是天真過的。